Okay, so I definitely have a couple thoughts. First up, Power Tower. I am not a fan. I actually really enjoy the City Finals. The Qualifiers is a little boring, Stage 1 is fun and carefree, Stage 2 is a heartbreaker, and Stage 3 is the Big Dog; however, the City Finals shouldn't be overlooked. Honestly, they are sometimes more interesting and revealing than the National Finals. I always have hope and interest in City Finals Finishers. It is a really good test for viewers to see who is actually worth it, and it is a good test for even the best of ninjas because City courses are really difficult. It's pretty rare that a rookie ever has the fastest time (although not impossible), but I imagine that we are going to see a lot of veterans competing and winning the Power Tower and moving straight to the National Finals which, in my opinion, doesn't really add anything. It was pointed out to me that this new addition may be a way to ensure some of the best make it to the National Finals, but we kind of saw tonight that this wasn't the case. In the beginning, I was placing my bets on Adam Rayl and Flip Rodriguez, both of whom I will talk about in a second. Before them though, we have to mention our ultimate champion of the night: Hunter Guerard. He totally came out of left field. Soderman definitely should have had the fastest time, no doubt. He got too greedy, and I understand that his height gave him an advantage, so it seemed like he had a good shot, but you must remember that the best of the best including Drew Drechsel, Joe Moravsky, and Isaac Caldiero all missed the $10k. It was his ruin, and he forfeited the chance at the Speed Pass, and I wouldn't be surprised if this happens again. Anyway, it's great for Hunter, I guess, but like I said, skipping the City Finals doesn't show us what he's fully capable of. I know he's not a rookie, so we have seen him before. I just think the City Finals are a good test to see who deserves to be in the National Finals. Plus, it is likely that we will see people like Drew, Joe, and Daniel (although not a guarantee, obviously, they just have a record) competing for the Speed Pass, and when it comes to these people, the second fastest time may not be as close as it was in L.A. Also, there is that idea of time for recovery. Just like Geoff and Isaac in Stage 4, we don't know the exact time these two have in between their regular run and this special competition, so someone may have an advantage? This particular night was very close both on the Course and the Power Tower. It may not be the case in the future, but I agree it adds an element of intrigue. It also spices up the choice between the regular wall and the Mega Wall. I like the rule change; however, I didn't mind the original rule from last year, either. Accounting for the Speed Pass and the rule change, we see there are a few paths one can take in deciding which wall to run. First, you have the in-over-your-head, slightly greedy route which Soderman and Flip chose. They were in the time race, but chose the Mega Wall and the money because they wanted it all which ultimately screwed both of the over resulting in no money, no speed pass, and no buzzer. Then there's the choice that Guerard possibly chose. He went for the regular wall because he was focused on the fastest time. He knew while running that he was going fast, but I'm not totally sure if they know their exact time, so he didn't mess with the Mega Wall at all to save his time. Then there are choices which don't revolve around the Speed Pass. You can go for the regular wall if you don't believe you can make the Mega Wall or you want a secure buzzer, or you can choose the Mega Wall if time is not a concern, but you run the risk that you don't make it and don't finish the course. I think the extra choices of which wall will prevent a few people who are more interested in the National Finals from attempting the Mega Wall. I do believe there will be people who can do what Flip and Soderman couldn't and grab both, but it is going to be a rarity. I think it's better to focus on one. If someone really believes in the National Finals, then it makes sense that they put their energy in speed, but if you know the National Finals is kind of a lost cause, so to speak, then the money isn't a bad choice. I suppose it's not a sure thing, either, though, so with the new rules, people may not attempt the Mega Wall just because they want to finish. Personally, I don't think there will be too many people who strive for both the $10k and the Speed Pass, so I think we will see some people who wanted the Mega Wall last year but will pass it up this year in favor of time.
Moving on. Guerard and Campbell were quite not the ones I would have expected. Honestly, though, I think they both did great. I'm hoping this means more for both of these guys as we see them in the future. I can't say I thought much of them in the past, but people continually prove me wrong, so I'll be on the lookout for both of them, especially Guerard on Stage 1. Let's see if the speed translates nationally.
I've already mentioned Soderman and Flip. They both got in over their head and overestimated their abilities. Soderman in particular had a great shot at destroying his friend's fastest time, and if he had, it could have been the two of them competing on the Power Tower. Yes, I know he didn't know what his time was, but if you believe at all that you have a shot at the Power Tower, then you should take it. Look at the odds and success rate of last year with the Mega Wall. This year you may have 3 shots, but I think there is more to think about now. No one is safe from this. Even people in the future like Drew and Daniel have to make a choice. Personally, I don't think Drew will take the safe route, but Daniel might despite his success on the Mega Wall last year. These two just got a little greedy, I think.
I actually think this was the reason for Rayl's downfall, too. He may have not made it to the Mega Wall again, but I think his focus was shaken because he wanted both. Like I said before, my bets were on Rayl, so I was definitely the most disappointed by his fall. In my head, there are 5 groups of ninjas: The Losers (I don't know what else to say right now, I'm sorry) who are the people who can't really do anything. They're unknown and they don't go far at all. Next are the Below Average who are the people who can do a little better than the Losers, maybe 3rd or 4th obstacle in Qualifiers or 5th obstacle during City Finals. A couple are known from nicknames or odd quirks, but they're nothing special. Then you have the Average. Some finish, some make it to the 5th or 6th obstacle or The Salmon Ladder in the City Finals. They're kind of consistent with their placement throughout the years, and sometimes they get on screen, sometimes they don't. Next are the Above Average. This is where most of the fan favorite Ninjas fall, in my opinion. The difference between Average and Above Average is not just fame and notoriety, though. It is a difference of skill. The people who are Above Average or Fan Favorites are not completely due to personality (some are, but not most). The Above Average people can consistently go a little further, and you find that their [early] failure is much more shocking. It's not about screen time or whether they're Matt or Akbar's favorite. It is based on strength and capability. You could further break down the Above Average into sub-levels, too. For example, I think Sean Bryan, Daniel Gil, and maybe Najee Richardson are at the top of the Above Average, but they are not yet in the category which is The Superstars. This group has very few people. I'd say only 4: Drew, Joe, Isaac, and Geoff. I realize this was a bit of a tangent, but I describe this pyramid to explain my feelings on Adam Rayl. I really like him, do not get me wrong. I think he's really good, and I see a lot for him. With that being said, I think the factor which keeps him the top of the Above Average or even Superstar groups is focus. Take Wednesday night for example. He clearly wanted both the Mega Wall and the Speed Pass. I think this messed him up on the 5th obstacle, I really do. Now, he could go on the record and say something completely different, but let's also take a quick look at last year. He dropped on the Criss Cross Salmon Ladder. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Rayl is fully capable of completing this obstacle, especially since it was only the second one of the course. However, he dropped. I would chalk this up to a focus issue. Of course, I have no idea what happened to him or what was going on in his mind, but there is definitely something about him which is holding him back. I feel like he's got all the physical traits which is why I feel like it's the mental game in which he's losing. Either way, we will see him again, and I have no doubt we'll see him in Las Vegas, too.
Let's talk about some other finishes starting with David Alvarez. I actually do believe that it's possible for him to find his sister through the show. Wasn't it Niemitalo who found a donor for his daughter through his run? It's not necessarily likely, but it's possible. Regardless, he was our first finisher, and he was a rookie, so I think that's really great. I hope it wasn't a fluke. He looked pretty good out there, so he has potential.
I'm going to shout out the Walk-ons: Jonah Bonner and Steven Barbarito. I believe these were the two successful Walk-ons. Honestly, walk-ons aren't really much different, but it is nice to see someone prove the casting people wrong. It's really disappointing and embarrassing for walk-ons who fall early, but it's still great to see people show what they've got. Anyway, I kind of like to look out for walk-ons to see if there's something special there.
Moving on. Let's talk women really quick. Tiana Webberley's run was unfortunate. She put up a really good fight last year. She's not on the top of the list, but maybe we'll see her again soon. She missed out on the National Finals last year, I believe, so I'd like to see her there. I don't have a ton of faith, to be honest, but she could still through us a curve ball. Samantha Bush was the only woman to do much, and she was really close to completing Spin Hopper. The biggest problem with women almost completing obstacles is that it is less likely that they'll be able to finish it the next night in the City Finals compared to their male counterparts. Now, Bush was really close, so if she doesn't mess up earlier, I think she has a good shot. Women are just harder to read in these types of situations. If she fell on the first half of Spin Hopper, I would guess that she couldn't finish it, but she came so close that I don't know how far she can go. Like everyone else, we will have to wait and see. There is always one woman who does really well in each city, I feel, so it could be her.
Scott Wilson. Enough said there. If you didn't watch, then you wouldn't know that he's been competing for 5 years and Wednesday night was his first buzzer. Not only that, but he was the only one to score the $10k. It was also on his first try. He did what Flip Rodriguez couldn't, and he made it look easy. I've said this before, but people who can hit their first buzzer now after years of competing are strong. The courses are undoubtedly more difficult now than they were a few years ago, and he's hitting buzzers now. I feel like that shows how much stronger he's gotten. Not just strong enough to defeat the old courses, but the current ones. Now, this was still only the Qualifying course, so we'll see what he can really do in a few weeks. I'll also mention that Arnold Hernandez hit his first buzzer, too. I just wouldn't have imagined that Wilson would go for the Mega Wall considering he probably has never seen the regular wall in regular competition. It was a gutsy move, honestly, but the fact that he made it up there in one shot was pretty impressive, I have got to admit. He got to be the star that night, but something tells me that the next night during the City Finals, he'll fall back.
I don't think I have much else to say. I think I am going to list all the finishers of the night for future reference. I know it's listed on the official website, but it'll be easier for me in the future if I need to look someone up.
I also will mention some missing names. Nicholas Coolridge and Josh Levin are not competing this year. Coolridge due to an injury and resting and Levin due to training and preparing for the 2020 Olympic Games. I absolutely love these two, so I am sad that I will not be seeing them. I also have no doubt that Coolridge would have had one of the top times if the fastest. I would easily believe, that if he were competing, Coolridge would have been running for the Speed Pass. Also, I noticed Jessie Graff was on the sidelines but wasn't competing. They also didn't give her a tag telling us where she was competing like they did for Sean Bryan, The Kid, Drew, and Najee. This may mean she isn't competing? I checked her Instagram, but she has yet to officially post anything like Coolridge and Levin which is how I knew they weren't competing this year. She would be a huge loss if she wasn't competing. She still remains the best female athlete, so if she is absent, it'll be interesting to see who takes her place.
Lastly, I actually wanted to mention the obstacles. I know I usually do this first, but there was nothing especially extraordinary about the course. I think the addition of the Power Tower and the Mega Wall rules took priority. The only obstacle which is really worth mentioning anyway is Walk the Plank. It was really surprising how many people fell on it. I think it's kind of sad when the 2nd obstacle is your killer, right? I don't mind have and obstacle be the Ninja Killer, I just don't like that it was the 2nd one. Something about that makes the whole course seem a little boring? I don't know what it is. Maybe it's because I'm used to seeing the National Finals or the City Finals. I guess the Qualifiers have to weed out the weaker people, but why on the 2nd obstacle? Something about it just irks me is all.
All right, here's the official list:
Well, I'm not exactly sure where they are moving onto. I know they filmed Atlanta next, so they might be going there. If Daniel Gil and The Kid are in OKC, I think we might find them going head-to-head for the Speed Pass. However, we've seen speed kill, and those we expect may not be those who we find at the end. I don't like the Power Tower, but since it's happening regardless, I don't know if I'd prefer to see two solid vets like Gil and The Kid or two lesser knowns like The Lizard and The Godfather. We'll just have to wait and see who screws up. Comment who you think will be going against each other in the Power Tower and your guesses for who will earn the $10k. Until then...
Moving on. Guerard and Campbell were quite not the ones I would have expected. Honestly, though, I think they both did great. I'm hoping this means more for both of these guys as we see them in the future. I can't say I thought much of them in the past, but people continually prove me wrong, so I'll be on the lookout for both of them, especially Guerard on Stage 1. Let's see if the speed translates nationally.
I've already mentioned Soderman and Flip. They both got in over their head and overestimated their abilities. Soderman in particular had a great shot at destroying his friend's fastest time, and if he had, it could have been the two of them competing on the Power Tower. Yes, I know he didn't know what his time was, but if you believe at all that you have a shot at the Power Tower, then you should take it. Look at the odds and success rate of last year with the Mega Wall. This year you may have 3 shots, but I think there is more to think about now. No one is safe from this. Even people in the future like Drew and Daniel have to make a choice. Personally, I don't think Drew will take the safe route, but Daniel might despite his success on the Mega Wall last year. These two just got a little greedy, I think.
I actually think this was the reason for Rayl's downfall, too. He may have not made it to the Mega Wall again, but I think his focus was shaken because he wanted both. Like I said before, my bets were on Rayl, so I was definitely the most disappointed by his fall. In my head, there are 5 groups of ninjas: The Losers (I don't know what else to say right now, I'm sorry) who are the people who can't really do anything. They're unknown and they don't go far at all. Next are the Below Average who are the people who can do a little better than the Losers, maybe 3rd or 4th obstacle in Qualifiers or 5th obstacle during City Finals. A couple are known from nicknames or odd quirks, but they're nothing special. Then you have the Average. Some finish, some make it to the 5th or 6th obstacle or The Salmon Ladder in the City Finals. They're kind of consistent with their placement throughout the years, and sometimes they get on screen, sometimes they don't. Next are the Above Average. This is where most of the fan favorite Ninjas fall, in my opinion. The difference between Average and Above Average is not just fame and notoriety, though. It is a difference of skill. The people who are Above Average or Fan Favorites are not completely due to personality (some are, but not most). The Above Average people can consistently go a little further, and you find that their [early] failure is much more shocking. It's not about screen time or whether they're Matt or Akbar's favorite. It is based on strength and capability. You could further break down the Above Average into sub-levels, too. For example, I think Sean Bryan, Daniel Gil, and maybe Najee Richardson are at the top of the Above Average, but they are not yet in the category which is The Superstars. This group has very few people. I'd say only 4: Drew, Joe, Isaac, and Geoff. I realize this was a bit of a tangent, but I describe this pyramid to explain my feelings on Adam Rayl. I really like him, do not get me wrong. I think he's really good, and I see a lot for him. With that being said, I think the factor which keeps him the top of the Above Average or even Superstar groups is focus. Take Wednesday night for example. He clearly wanted both the Mega Wall and the Speed Pass. I think this messed him up on the 5th obstacle, I really do. Now, he could go on the record and say something completely different, but let's also take a quick look at last year. He dropped on the Criss Cross Salmon Ladder. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that Rayl is fully capable of completing this obstacle, especially since it was only the second one of the course. However, he dropped. I would chalk this up to a focus issue. Of course, I have no idea what happened to him or what was going on in his mind, but there is definitely something about him which is holding him back. I feel like he's got all the physical traits which is why I feel like it's the mental game in which he's losing. Either way, we will see him again, and I have no doubt we'll see him in Las Vegas, too.
Let's talk about some other finishes starting with David Alvarez. I actually do believe that it's possible for him to find his sister through the show. Wasn't it Niemitalo who found a donor for his daughter through his run? It's not necessarily likely, but it's possible. Regardless, he was our first finisher, and he was a rookie, so I think that's really great. I hope it wasn't a fluke. He looked pretty good out there, so he has potential.
I'm going to shout out the Walk-ons: Jonah Bonner and Steven Barbarito. I believe these were the two successful Walk-ons. Honestly, walk-ons aren't really much different, but it is nice to see someone prove the casting people wrong. It's really disappointing and embarrassing for walk-ons who fall early, but it's still great to see people show what they've got. Anyway, I kind of like to look out for walk-ons to see if there's something special there.
Moving on. Let's talk women really quick. Tiana Webberley's run was unfortunate. She put up a really good fight last year. She's not on the top of the list, but maybe we'll see her again soon. She missed out on the National Finals last year, I believe, so I'd like to see her there. I don't have a ton of faith, to be honest, but she could still through us a curve ball. Samantha Bush was the only woman to do much, and she was really close to completing Spin Hopper. The biggest problem with women almost completing obstacles is that it is less likely that they'll be able to finish it the next night in the City Finals compared to their male counterparts. Now, Bush was really close, so if she doesn't mess up earlier, I think she has a good shot. Women are just harder to read in these types of situations. If she fell on the first half of Spin Hopper, I would guess that she couldn't finish it, but she came so close that I don't know how far she can go. Like everyone else, we will have to wait and see. There is always one woman who does really well in each city, I feel, so it could be her.
Scott Wilson. Enough said there. If you didn't watch, then you wouldn't know that he's been competing for 5 years and Wednesday night was his first buzzer. Not only that, but he was the only one to score the $10k. It was also on his first try. He did what Flip Rodriguez couldn't, and he made it look easy. I've said this before, but people who can hit their first buzzer now after years of competing are strong. The courses are undoubtedly more difficult now than they were a few years ago, and he's hitting buzzers now. I feel like that shows how much stronger he's gotten. Not just strong enough to defeat the old courses, but the current ones. Now, this was still only the Qualifying course, so we'll see what he can really do in a few weeks. I'll also mention that Arnold Hernandez hit his first buzzer, too. I just wouldn't have imagined that Wilson would go for the Mega Wall considering he probably has never seen the regular wall in regular competition. It was a gutsy move, honestly, but the fact that he made it up there in one shot was pretty impressive, I have got to admit. He got to be the star that night, but something tells me that the next night during the City Finals, he'll fall back.
I don't think I have much else to say. I think I am going to list all the finishers of the night for future reference. I know it's listed on the official website, but it'll be easier for me in the future if I need to look someone up.
I also will mention some missing names. Nicholas Coolridge and Josh Levin are not competing this year. Coolridge due to an injury and resting and Levin due to training and preparing for the 2020 Olympic Games. I absolutely love these two, so I am sad that I will not be seeing them. I also have no doubt that Coolridge would have had one of the top times if the fastest. I would easily believe, that if he were competing, Coolridge would have been running for the Speed Pass. Also, I noticed Jessie Graff was on the sidelines but wasn't competing. They also didn't give her a tag telling us where she was competing like they did for Sean Bryan, The Kid, Drew, and Najee. This may mean she isn't competing? I checked her Instagram, but she has yet to officially post anything like Coolridge and Levin which is how I knew they weren't competing this year. She would be a huge loss if she wasn't competing. She still remains the best female athlete, so if she is absent, it'll be interesting to see who takes her place.
Lastly, I actually wanted to mention the obstacles. I know I usually do this first, but there was nothing especially extraordinary about the course. I think the addition of the Power Tower and the Mega Wall rules took priority. The only obstacle which is really worth mentioning anyway is Walk the Plank. It was really surprising how many people fell on it. I think it's kind of sad when the 2nd obstacle is your killer, right? I don't mind have and obstacle be the Ninja Killer, I just don't like that it was the 2nd one. Something about that makes the whole course seem a little boring? I don't know what it is. Maybe it's because I'm used to seeing the National Finals or the City Finals. I guess the Qualifiers have to weed out the weaker people, but why on the 2nd obstacle? Something about it just irks me is all.
All right, here's the official list:
- Hunter Guerard: 1:34.03 - Winner of the Speed Pass - National Finalist
- David Campbell: 1:35.99
- Kevin Bull: 1:37.26
- Danell Leyva: 02:23.68
- Davyon Hancox: 02:28.93
- Scott Willson: 02.41.25 (Mega Wall)
- David Alvarez: 02.59.71
- Arnold Hernandez: 03.44.54
- Brian Burk: 03:58.38
- Brian Kretsch: 04:17.67
- Jonah Bonner: 04:34.93
- Kyle Soderman: Mega Wall - 01:10.67
- Flip Rodriguez: Mega Wall - 01:40.77
- Ruben Arellano: Warped Wall - 01:49.46
- Hunter Swan: Mega Wall - 03:05.34
- Corey McCoy: Warped Wall - 03:21.02
- Adam Rayl: Spin Hopper - 00:38.17
- Seth Rogers: Spin Hopper - 00:47.40
- Ben Udy: Spin Hopper - 01:17.18
- Westley Silvestri: Spin Hopper - 01:37.57
- Noah Garfield: Spin Hopper - 01:52.39
- Austin Seibert: Spin Hopper - 01:59.68
- Samantha Bush: Spin Hopper - 02:02.63
- Kevin Fisch: Diamond Dash - 00:56.12
- Rebekah Bonilla: Diamond Dash - 01:24.29
- Verdale Benson: Diamond Dash - 01:28.43
- Lee Cates: Spring Forward - 00:17.03
- Thomas Kofron: Spring Forward - 00:19.06
- Anthony Trucks: Spring Forward - 00:26.56
- Steven Barbarito: Spring Forward - 00:29.96
Top five women
- Samantha Bush: Spin Hopper - 02:02.63
- Rebekah Bonilla: Diamond Dash- 01:24.29
- Emmi Rose: Spring Forward
- Anna Shumaker: Walk the Plank
- Tiana Webberley: Walk the Plank
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